Example: Financial projections
Made for Sierra Lift, a sample company. Sierra Lift is not a real company.
Three years, month by month, built around how many units you make and sell. Excel with live formulas, plus a two-page summary. It tells you when cash runs short and how much you would need.
Base case · From November 2026 · U.S. dollars
What the sample puts in: its products and services, month 1 to month 36
| Product or service | Price | Cost a unit | Month 1 | Month 36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL-60 Heavy-Lift Airframe | $18,500 | $7,000 | 7 a month | 14 a month |
| SL-25 Inspection Airframe | $9,800 | $3,500 | 5 a month | 12 a month |
| Field repairs and crew training | Service | $6,000 a month | $12,000 a month |
Also in the sample: $270,000 in cash at the start, 14 people with hires planned, a new loan of $420,000 in month 2, $393,000 of new equipment, an award of $50,000 in month 18.
SL
FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS
Sierra Lift Aerospace
Base case · November 2026 to October 2029. All amounts in U.S. dollars.
Cash goes below zero in month 9 (July 2027): about $60,492 more keeps it above zero.
Debt service coverage is 0.72 in year 1. Lenders compare it with their own minimum.
Month 14
Break-even, December 2027
-$60.5K
Lowest cash, month 15
$60.5K
Cash needed to stay above zero
$830K
Cash at the end
Cash at month end and revenue a month
Revenue and net profit by year
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Cash at year end
-$39,724
$132,677
$829,829
Revenue in the year
$2,395,200
$3,395,910
$4,485,167
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Revenue
$2,395,200
$3,395,910
$4,485,167
Net profit
-$16,770
$260,952
$875,629
Income statement
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Revenue
$2,395,200
$3,395,910
$4,485,167
Cost of goods
$1,557,000
$2,261,160
$2,731,536
Gross profit
$838,200
$1,134,750
$1,753,631
Gross margin
34.99%
33.42%
39.1%
Operating costs
$787,200
$797,160
$807,481
EBITDA
$51,000
$337,590
$946,150
Depreciation
$33,350
$41,100
$41,100
Interest
$34,420
$35,538
$29,421
Taxes
$0
$0
$0
Net profit
-$16,770
$260,952
$875,629
Cash flow
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Net profit
-$16,770
$260,952
$875,629
Depreciation added back
$33,350
$41,100
$41,100
Change in money customers owe
-$233,300
-$77,451
-$101,515
Change in stock
-$168,000
-$57,680
-$77,168
Change in money owed to suppliers
$84,000
$28,840
$38,584
Equipment bought
-$393,000
$0
$0
New loans
$420,000
$0
$0
Loan principal repaid
-$36,005
-$73,360
-$79,477
Equity and grants
$0
$50,000
$0
Net cash flow
-$309,724
$172,401
$697,153
Cash at year end
-$39,724
$132,677
$829,829
Balance at year end
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Cash
-$39,724
$132,677
$829,829
Money customers owe
$233,300
$310,751
$412,266
Stock
$168,000
$225,680
$302,848
Equipment after depreciation
$359,650
$318,550
$277,450
Total assets
$721,226
$987,658
$1,822,393
Money owed to suppliers
$84,000
$112,840
$151,424
Loans
$468,996
$395,636
$316,159
Owners' equity
$168,230
$479,182
$1,354,811
Total liabilities and equity
$721,226
$987,658
$1,822,393
Key numbers by year
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Loan payments, principal and interest
$70,424
$108,898
$108,898
Debt service coverage
0.72
3.10
8.69
People at year end
18
22
22
Revenue per person
$133,067
$154,360
$203,871
EBITDA: earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Debt service coverage: EBITDA divided by the year's loan payments, principal and interest.
- Starts November 2026 and runs 36 months, to October 2029. All amounts in U.S. dollars.
- The months between those entered for units or revenue follow a straight line, in whole units. Equipment is depreciated on a straight line from the month it is bought.
- Cash on hand at the start: $270,000. Revenue in the last full year: $1,860,000.
- First Valley Bank: $85,000 owed at 7.5% a year, $2,100 a month, 44 months left.
- SL-60 Heavy-Lift Airframe: $18,500 a unit with $7,000 of materials. Units rise from 7 a month in month 1 to 14 a month in month 36. Price changes 3% a year; materials 4% a year.
- SL-25 Inspection Airframe: $9,800 a unit with $3,500 of materials. Units rise from 5 a month in month 1 to 12 a month in month 36. Price changes 3% a year; materials 4% a year.
- Field repairs and crew training: Revenue rises from $6,000 a month in month 1 to $12,000 a month in month 36. Price changes 3% a year.
- Customers pay in 30 days; suppliers are paid in 30 days; 2 months of materials kept in stock.
- Chief Executive Officer: 1 at the start; $130,000 a year each plus 20% payroll taxes and benefits; an operating cost.
- Director of Sales: 1 at the start; $100,000 a year each plus 20% payroll taxes and benefits; an operating cost.
- Lead Composites Engineer: 1 at the start; $115,000 a year each plus 20% payroll taxes and benefits; an operating cost.
- Composites technician: 6 at the start, 2 more in month 7 and 2 more in month 13; $52,000 a year each plus 20% payroll taxes and benefits; builds the product.
- Assembly and test technician: 4 at the start, 2 more in month 10 and 2 more in month 19; $48,000 a year each plus 20% payroll taxes and benefits; builds the product.
- Operations and office manager: 1 at the start; $54,000 a year each plus 20% payroll taxes and benefits; an operating cost.
- Running costs a month at the start: rent $9,500 (3% a year); utilities $2,200 (3% a year); insurance $3,800 (5% a year); software $1,400 (5% a year); travel $2,500 (3% a year); marketing $1,800 (3% a year); professional fees $2,000 (3% a year); testing and certification $1,500; other $1,000 (3% a year).
- Second layup line: $240,000 in month 3, depreciated over 10 years.
- Curing oven: $135,000 in month 3, depreciated over 10 years.
- Structural test bench upgrade: $18,000 in month 6, depreciated over 5 years.
- New loan of $420,000 in month 2 at 8.25% a year over 7 years, interest only for the first 6 months, then equal monthly payments.
- Grants and awards, not repaid, counted as equity: $50,000 in month 18.
- LLC. No tax at the company level. Owners pay tax on the profit on their own returns.
What you get
An Excel file (.xlsx) with live formulas, and a two-page summary in Word (.docx) and PDF with your key numbers and the cash and revenue charts. Every amount in U.S. dollars.
Autonomy Runway is not a law firm, an accounting firm or a financial adviser, and nothing we publish is legal, tax or financial advice. The guides are general information with links to the official sources, and the tools organize your own facts and decisions. For advice about your situation, talk to a lawyer, an accountant or a financial adviser. See all our disclaimers.